Oct 5, 2018 | Climate, Climate Change, Ecosystems, Environment, Food, Food & Water, History, Young Scientists
© Marcus Thomson
By Marcus Thomson, researcher, IIASA Ecosystems Services and Management Program
While living in Cairo in 2010, I witnessed first-hand the human toll of political and environmental disasters that washed over Africa at the end of the last century. Unprecedented numbers of migrants were pressing into North Africa, many pushed out of their homelands by conflict and state-failure, pulled towards safer, richer, less fragile places like Europe. Throughout Sub-Saharan Africa, climate change was driving up competition for scarce land and water, and raising pressure on farmers to maintain the quantity and quality of their crops.
It is a similar story throughout the developing world, where many farmers do without the use of expensive chemical fertilizer and pesticides, complex irrigation, or boutique seed varieties. They rely instead on traditional land management practices that developed over long periods with consistent, predictable conditions. It is difficult to predict how dryland farmers will respond to climate change; so it is challenging to plan for various social, economic, and political problems expected to develop under, or be exacerbated by, climate change. Will it spur innovation or, as has been argued for the Syrian civil war[1], set up conflict? A major stumbling block is that the dynamics of human social behavior are so difficult to model.
Instead of attempting to predict farmers’ responses to climate change by modelling human behavior, we can look to the responses to environmental changes of farmers from the past as analogues for many subsistence farmers of the future. Methods to fill in historical gaps, and reconstruct the prehistoric record, are valuable because they expand the set of observed cases of societal-scale responses to environmental change. For instance, some 2000 years ago, an expansive maize-growing cultural complex, the Ancestral Puebloans (APs), was well established in the arid American Southwest. By AD 1000, members of this AP complex produced unique and innovative material culture including the famed “Great Houses”, the largest built structures in the United States until the 19th century. However, between AD 1150 and 1350, there was a profound demographic transformation throughout the Southwest linked to climate change. We now know that many APs migrated elsewhere. As a PhD student at the University of California, Los Angeles, I wondered whether a shift to cooler, more variable conditions of the “Little Ice Age” (LIA, roughly AD 1300 to 1850) was linked to the production of their staple crop, maize.
I came to IIASA as a YSSP in 2016 to collaborate with crop modelers on this question, and our work has just been published in the journal Quaternary International.[2] I brought with me high-resolution data from a state-of-the-art climate model to drive the crop simulations, and AP site information collected by archaeologists. Because AP maize was quite different from modern corn, I worked with IIASA soil scientist Juraj Balkovič to modify the crop simulator with parameters derived from heirloom varieties still grown by indigenous peoples in the Southwest. I and IIASA economic geographer Tamás Krisztin developed a statistical technique to analyze the dynamical relationship between AP site occupation and simulated yield outcomes.
We found that for the most climate-stressed high-elevation sites, abandonments were most associated with increased year-to-year yield variability; and for the least stressed low-elevation and well-watered sites, abandonment was more likely due to endogenous stressors, such as soil degradation and population pressure. Crucially, we found that across all regions, populations peaked during periods of the most stable year-to-year crop yields, even though these were also relatively warm and dry periods. In short, we found that AP maize farmers adapted well to gradually rising temperatures and drought, during the MCA, but failed to adapt to increased climate variability after ~AD 1150, during the LIA. Because increased variability is one of the near certainties for dryland farming zones under global warming, the AP experience offers a cautionary example of the limits of low-technology adaptation to climate change, a business-as-usual direction for many sub-Saharan dryland farmers.
This is a lesson from the past that policymakers might take note of.
[1] Kelley, C. P., Mohtadi, S., Cane, M. A., Seager, R., & Kushnir, Y. (2015). Climate change in the Fertile Crescent and implications of the recent Syrian drought. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201421533.
[2] Thomson, M. J., Balkovič, J., Krisztin, T., MacDonald, G. M. (2018). Simulated crop yield for Zea mays for Fremont Ancestral Puebloan sites in Utah between 850-1499 CE based on temperature dailies from a statistically downscaled climate model. Quaternary International. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2018.09.031
Oct 1, 2018 | Brazil, Postdoc
Camila Ludovique – personal archive.
By Camila Ludovique, research assistant CAPES/IIASA Sandwich Doctorate
I come from Brazil, more specifically from the Energy Planning Program of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, that postcard city that most of you may have already seen in pictures, with gorgeous mountains beside the ocean, the sunsets…
But, on the ground we have many problems, as do all the major cities in the developing world, including a high increase in the population, about 11 % in the last decade, who require transport services work, housing, leisure and happiness.
However, higher than the increase in Rio’s population was the increase in its automobile fleet, around 110%, to supply the demand for transport in the city. The result: immobility, traffic jam, environment degradation and loss of quality of life. Then, one day I realized: something needs to be done to transform the business-as-usual scenario!
I started to wonder, how can we develop a society that is more sustainable? How can the transport passenger sector play its role in the decarbonization of economy? Moreover, how can we answer these questions?
By building mathematical models, which try to simulate the real dynamic of full economies, to assess different strategies towards a low-carbon transport system. In this way, we can try to help politicians to understand the emissions problem in a quantitative framework. We can build a dialogue, supported by numbers and evidence on the effectiveness of different policies, measures, and actions to reduce CO2 emissions from the transport sector.
Articulating this complex issue in the context of mathematical language allows us to expand the boundaries of our mental models and ideas, define them and generate scenarios to figure out what that means in practice. The models will not give us the answer – all models are wrong – but they will give us insights that improve our mental models and the mental models of all the people who need to be involved in order for change to happen, so that people are empowered with effective policies with good leverage to go out there and make a difference. This is what makes some models useful.
And that is why IIASA appears in my life…
Choosing IIASA
Here at IIASA we have researchers and expertise from all around the world, allowing us to develop mathematical models to transform science into actions and to achieve better levels of sustainability in our world.
Being a little bit more technical, there are many examples of how and where emissions from transport have been accounted for through modelling approaches, but, roughly, we can say that there are main two types of models – the top-down and the bottom-up approach.
The bottom-up approach builds the model through more desegregated data. This means, for example, that you can differentiate the emissions pattern between the weeks and the weekends, so you can have a better understanding of the behavior and activities of human beings inside your model, which leads to more realistic outcomes.
The top-down approach uses more aggregated levels of indicators, such as the average distance in kilometers traveled per capita of a country in a year, known as PKT in the transport sector. This is just one value to represent the whole population, which doesn’t allow us to see very detailed patterns of human activity, but it allows us to see much further, around the whole globe, and compare how each region may evolve. On the other hand, the bottom-up approach cannot see a big region without losing the capabilities of a desegregated model.
I used to say that one is myopic and the other has astigmatism. How can we solve this dilemma?
Working with both… and that is why IIASA benefits me
The institute has an important and famous top-down model, the Model for Energy Supply Strategy Alternatives and their General Environmental Impact, better known as MESSAGE. It which provides core inputs for major international assessments, such as the IPCC, and here I am – in this castle in Europe, learning how to model in a global scale.
Besides that, I am also developing a bottom-up model that applies big data to assess the urban passenger emissions in Rio de Janeiro, creating a tool that seeks to answer how we can achieve the transition paths to reduce the carbon footprint of the transport sector, and how much it will cost. This will help my country develop strategies towards sustainable mobility and a better quality of life for Brazilians who live in Rio de Janeiro, or those who travel to that wonderful city.
Why apply for the IIASA doctorate program?
IIASA is not in Vienna itself, it is in Laxenburg, a small village south of Vienna, which means if you want to live in the city, you must travel. But, if that is not a problem for you, I really would recommend IIASA for you!
IIASA has good infrastructure, and there are great people from all over the world, all friendly. There are many activities in the summer time, that even offer free beer! There is also the mountain club, the music club, a great park to run in, or walk in, which is full of nature. For sure, it is a good place to live and finalize your long life of studies. Come to make part of this history.
Applications for the 2019 IIASA-CAPES Doctorate Sandwich Program and Postdoctoral Fellowship Program opened on 1 September 2018 and will run until 15 October 2018. Candidates have to apply to both CAPES (on the CAPES website) and IIASA. Successful applicants will be informed of the selection results by mid-December 2018. Selected candidates are expected to take up their position at IIASA between March and October 2019.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the Nexus blog, nor of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Sep 18, 2018 | Alumni
Pavel Kabat (c) M. Silveri | IIASA
Pavel Kabat is chief scientist at the World Meteorological Organization and was director general of IIASA from February 2012 until September 2018
As I leave IIASA after almost seven years, it is interesting to reflect on my time here. When I came to IIASA, the Strategic Plan 2011- 2020 was in the initial stages of implementation. Among the priorities was increasing the level of systems science and cross-cutting thinking across the institute’s programs and to make IIASA a really global institution.
My priorities initially were exactly that. IIASA had 18 national members and was then largely dominated by the “Global North”. My priority was to expand global membership and at the same time to activate the role of the existing “Global South” members like China and India.
We pursued a strategy in which new IIASA members represent a particular regional and thematic setting, , and where IIASA’s systems approach can make a difference. For example, we invited Vietnam to join as I believe it is a country which will be one of the next “Asian tigers”, with a fast-growing, booming economy and society. IIASA developed the models and methods to understand fast transition processes in Asian tiger countries, like the Republic of Korea. Such representative examples allow us to test the models.
We welcomed other new members like Indonesia, Mexico, and Australia. The UK was one of the key founding members of IIASA in 1972 but it left IIASA for political reasons in 1982. I was extremely proud that my IIASA colleagues, the IIASA Council and I were able to make a sufficiently appealing case for the UK to rejoin IIASA in 2015. The concept of building bridges across the political divide through IIASA collaborative science came best into fruition by having both Iran and Israel to join as members in 2016 and 2017 respectively.
This steep growth in membership inevitably brought additional challenges to the IIASA system. IIASA has also not been unaffected by changes in the world, with an erosion and fragmentation of the global political and economic discourse, decreasing levels of global solidarity, and new geopolitical tensions.
Now, the future role of IIASA in this changing world is a main subject of discussion as IIASA and the Council develop an updated strategy beyond 2020, assisted by a large external review of IIASA in 2017. In my view, the current world needs IIASA more than ever. There are very few places in the world which provide a truly scientific platform to interact across geopolitical divides in and between the global North and the global South. IIASA can act as a unique kind of “honest broker”, not to be compared to the major think tanks or science councils, as we have both a think tank function and the multidisciplinary capacity to do actual analytical work in house.
I believe there is a paramount set of reasons for this wonderful, unique institute to be supported in the future but a number of things will have to change, and in some cases, radically.
Let me start with the most important aspect of IIASA, its people. I believe that the IIASA system should revisit the way talent and human capital is attracted to and kept at IIASA with a good 21st century attitude to career and personal life balance.
We now have 380 colleagues on our staff coming from 48 countries. In addition we have about 2,400 collaborators from 830 partner institutions connected to IIASA activities and projects across the world. In 2017 we hosted 2,421 additional researchers and conference delegates to collaborate with us. In my six and a half years as IIASA director general I saw IIASA staff growing from about 270 in 2011 to almost 400 in 2018 and I’m proud to see that more than half of our new colleagues are young, mid-career high potentials.
I think it is our duty as senior management to provide decent career and life perspectives to our young and mid-career generation colleagues, and to focus more on the equality, diversity, and overall wellbeing of staff. IIASA could introduce new elements like shared appointments across the world, and better aid colleagues with young families. IIASA should invest intellectually and financially into succession plans, and attracting and keeping talent, particularly the young talent. Within the next five years, more than three quarters of senior IIASA management will reach retirement age.
My second suggestion is that IIASA should substantially recalibrate and improve its relationship with its National Member Organizations (NMOs). But it takes two to waltz, as a good Viennese would say. A genuine mix of a global good scientific and science-to-policy work with a regional portfolio and national value portfolios, together with a capacity development and research partnership training concept can be easily developed for every IIASA member individually as well as for clusters of countries. However, the NMOs in most of our member countries would need to change their modus operandi too, and become active co-owners, distributors and true strategic focal points of IIASA in both academic and science-to-policy landscapes in their countries.
Thirdly, I believe the IIASA community, from the Council to individual researchers, should “walk the talk” and demonstrate a pioneering, leadership spirit when it comes to future strategic scientific focus. For example, IIASA integrated models, despite being among to the best in the world, are not really able to deal with the major social, institutional, governance, and behavioral changes needed for a global transformation. What sense does it make to produce yet another set of articles and assessments about the world to be kept within 1.5°C of global warming instead of 2°C, while we have no real clue how the social, economic, political, and individual behavior system will cope with the already very bold 2°C degree target? We need to understand the role of social science to achieve our bold environmental ambitions.
Fourthly, IIASA should remain a place for exploration, new ideas, surprising combinations of thoughts and disciplines, a place welcoming exploratory thinking in system science, and open to those with good ideas regardless of their place of origin or nationality.
Finally, it is imperative that IIASA keeps investing in collaborative and partnership links with its host country Austria, whose crucial role cannot be overemphasized. I have been deeply thankful for the generous support of Austrian institutions ranging from the federal president, and the Academy of Science, to the municipality of Laxenburg.
In my new role as the Chief Scientist of the UN WMO I will be dealing with many fields in which IIASA has been active, so we will continue to meet and collaborate often. IIASA has become part of my identity and I will give any support I can to this unique institution in the future.
I would like to wish my successor, Albert van Jaarsveld, the IIASA governing council, and all of my IIASA colleagues, all possible success.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the Nexus blog, nor of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Sep 14, 2018 | Brazil, Postdoc
Julian Hunt – personal archive.
Julian Hunt is a postdoc at IIASA and part of the Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES) scheme.
My postdoctoral research consists of looking at the world potential and costs of storing energy and water with large-scale pumped-storage plants. This consists of developing computational models using world topographical and hydrological data to develop all possible projects in the world. The results from my research could then be used by countries to analyze the viability of building seasonal pumped-storage for short, medium, and long-term energy storage needs and to improve the water management of the country.
I first heard about IIASA at the Vienna Energy Forum in 2010, when I was doing an internship at UNIDO. I got the impression that IIASA was a major contributor to the science that supports major claims by the UN. This led me to start reading about IIASA’s projects and follow its research. I did not think twice when I received an invitation to apply for the IIASA-CAPES fellowship, which gave me a chance to join the institute and develop my own high impact research. One thing that might stop Brazilian people from applying for this scholarship is because the native language in Austria is German. However, IIASA’s working language is English and in Vienna most people speak English.
IIASA focuses on applied and high impact research at a global scale. Prior to my experience at IIASA, I used to develop new technologies looking only at one or a few cases studies. This limited the research to a small readership, which would think that the technology could only be implemented in one location. With the experience I had at IIASA, I learned to combine my technological expertise with computer modelling and Geographic Information System in most of my work. This considerably increased the readership and impact of my research, and citations of my papers.
Working at IIASA you can focus only on your research. Normally when doing research at universities you might have to give lectures and supervise students. This reduces the important focus on research. At IIASA the main activities are to research, publish articles and scientific reports, present your work at conferences, collaborate with other research institutes, develop projects and so on. The main activities of a researcher. Similarly to universities, there is always finger food (free lunch) available, but the quality is much better.
IIASA is located close to Vienna, which is a beautiful, lively, and affordable and city. Vienna was voted the best city to live in the world and I agree with this. Another important aspect is the social life. IIASA has a very active social life, which includes regular events and parties, different societies (music club, running club), an active Staff Association (STAC) and the possibility of making friends from around the world. Becoming IIASA alumni will also open doors for your future. For example, the Young Scientists Summer Program (YSSP), brings around 50 of the best researchers in the world every year to IIASA. This results in a large network of IIASA alumni researchers.
I highly recommend that researchers, fluent in English, who want to give a huge boost to their research career, learn a lot of valuable methodologies, solve holistic and complex problems, make good friends, and increase their network should apply for a research position at IIASA.
Applications for the 2019 IIASA-CAPES Doctorate Sandwich Program and Postdoctoral Fellowship Program opened on 1 September 2018 and will run until 15 October 2018. Candidates have to apply to both CAPES (on the CAPES website) and IIASA. Successful applicants will be informed of the selection results by mid-December 2018. Selected candidates are expected to take up their position at IIASA between March and October 2019.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the Nexus blog, nor of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
Sep 7, 2018 | Brazil, Education, Postdoc
Rafael Morais
Rafael Morais is a recent participant in the IIASA-CAPES Doctorate Sandwich Program, he spent nine months at IIASA working in the Energy program.
In 2016, the Brazilian Federal Agency for Support and Evaluation of Graduate Education (CAPES) partnered with IIASA on a new initiative offering support to doctoral and postdoctoral researchers interested in collaborating with established IIASA researchers. As part of this initiative, IIASA and CAPES annually offer up to three fellowships for Brazilian PhD students to spend three to twelve months at IIASA as part of the joint IIASA-CAPES Doctorate Sandwich Program, as well as up to four postdoc fellowships that enable Brazilian researchers to work at IIASA for up to 24 months.
Rafael Morais, a PhD candidate at the Energy Planning Program of the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, was part of the first group of Brazilian PhD students funded by CAPES to participate in this program. He spent nine months with the Energy Program at IIASA in 2017. We recently caught up with him and asked him about his research and what the fellowship has meant to him:
What is your PhD research about?
My research involves modeling the contribution of renewable energy sources in electric systems. My doctorate thesis includes a case study on Brazil, where we have large potential for wind and solar power generation in various regions. My main objective is to investigate how total costs develop considering the number of wind and solar plants in the Brazilian electricity system.
Why did you choose IIASA for your doctorate program (over other places)?
I chose IIASA because it is a very reputable think tank for energy and model development. People are very capable and well prepared. They have been working on energy systems modeling for many years, and their experience motivated my decision to come to IIASA. I talked with some people that were at IIASA before me and they were all very grateful for the experience. Another important factor was that it is an international institute, where one can have contact with people from many different countries, and the main language is English.
Rafael Morais
How did your participation in the program benefit you?
I had the opportunity to get into contact with diverse approaches to my research questions, thus enriching my thesis. Unlike my home institution, IIASA does not have only energy experts, but also computer scientists, mathematicians, and physics experts, all working in the same group, and all contributing to a great modeling team. Being here was an excellent opportunity to collaborate with them. As my first experience abroad, it was also a chance for me to grow and develop other skills, both on a professional and a personal level.
Would you recommend that people apply for the IIASA-CAPES doctorate program?
Yes, I would definitely recommend it! IIASA is a very nice place to work. People really care about a harmonious work environment, and IIASA staff are always available to help you with any issue. Apart from that, the people that I worked with during my time here are very knowledgeable and kind. In short, it was a great experience being at IIASA for nine months during my PhD.
Applications for the 2019 IIASA-CAPES Doctorate Sandwich Program and Postdoctoral Fellowship Program opened on 1 September 2018 and will run until 15 October 2018. Candidates have to apply to both CAPES (on the CAPES website) and IIASA. Successful applicants will be informed of the selection results by mid-December 2018. Selected candidates are expected to take up their position at IIASA between March and October 2019.
Note: This article gives the views of the author, and not the position of the Nexus blog, nor of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
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